AUTHOR: Jerry "Jet" Whittaker TITLE: Video Poker Mythbusters DATE: 9:44 AM ----- BODY: When we think about myths and legends surrounding electronic gaming devices,
we mostly think about the odd things people believe about slots. Is there a
jackpot button an operator can push to reward a deserving player? Is a
machine due to pay off after a long losing streak? Do games pay higher
percentages on weekdays than weekends? The answers: No, no, and no. There's
less mystery about video poker games. After all, the pay tables tell us what
the long-term payback percentages on video poker games should be, something
we can't tell by looking at a slot machine. Still, video poker players have
come up with their own set of myths. Let's try to bust a few: MYTH: Higher
denomination games pay more than lower denomination games. FACT: Games of
the same pay table return the same percentages in the long run, regardless
of coin denomination. The myth seems plausible enough, doesn't it? It's
usually true that $5 slots pay more than $1 slots, which pay more than
quarters, which pay more than nickels, which pay more than pennies.
Shouldn't that apply to video poker, too? It doesn't. A 9-6 Jacks or Better
machine, where full houses pay 9-for-1 and flushes 6-for-1, pays the same
99.5 percent with expert play regardless of whether you're playing for
pennies, $100 or anything in between. Drop the full house and flush paybacks
to 8-5, and the return drops to 97.3 percent, again regardless of coin
denomination. In most casinos, you'll find a mix of higher and lower-paying
games within each denomination. In Las Vegas, you're even more likely to
find some higher-paying games at the lower coin values. Full-pay Deuces
Wild, a 100.8 percent game with expert play, is fairly easy to find on
quarters, but rare on dollar games. A game that good at high denominations
is seen as an invitation to the pros. MYTH: Games that offer big jackpots on
four Aces deal fewer four-Ace hands. FACT: Players actually get four Aces
more often on games such as Double Bonus Poker and Super Aces than they do
on games without four-Ace jackpots. The machine doesn't have to deal four
Aces less often to make up for the jackpots. That's all taken care of
elsewhere on the pay tables, with lower paybacks on other hands such as full
houses, flushes and two pairs. Smart players adjust their strategy to the
pay table, and play for the Aces more often. In 8-5 Super Aces, for
instance, we'll draw four Aces about once per 4,209 hands, while in 9-6
Jacks or Better, the average is more than 5,100 hands between four-Ace
hands. Why? Because in Super Aces, we'll hold just the Aces in two-pair
hands, break up a full house to hold three Aces, and hold just an Ace
instead of two or three unsuited high cards. We make the opposite plays in
Jacks or Better. The machine just deals us the cards randomly. If we used
the same strategy for all pay tables, we'd get four Aces with the same
frequency on different games. When our strategy favors Aces, we get the Ace
quads more often. MYTH: When you discard just one card, it's usually
replaced with a card of the same denomination. FACT: When you discard just
one card, you'll get a card of the same denomination about 3 times per 47
plays.

Let's say you have 4-5-6-7 of mixed suits, and you throw away a 10. You've
seen five of the 52 cards in the deck, leaving 47 possible draws. Three of
those remaining 47 cards is a 10. Your chances of drawing another 10 are 3
in 47.

Sometimes the chances are less. If you have 4-5-6-7 of hearts and a 7 of
spades, you discard the spade and hope for a flush or straight flush. The 7s
of clubs and diamonds remain, so you have a 2 in 47 chance of drawing
another 7.

But streaks happen, and humans have a gift for selective memory. Two or
three or four instances in a short time of a draw bringing a card of the
same denomination can leave someone muttering that he or she always gets the
same card on the draw.

Players have been telling me about same-card draws for years, and I always
suggest they keep track, keep an exact count of how many one-card draws they
make, and how often they get a same-denomination replacement. With real
scrutiny, the effect disappears.

MYTH: After a big-paying hand, the machine stops paying.

FACT: Odds are the same after a big hand as they were before.

This is a myth video poker players share with slot players. Everyone seems
to think a machine needs to go into makeup mode after a big pay. It doesn't.
In the long run, any big hit just fades into statistical insignificance.

Now, I always recommend putting away a good chunk of any big hit. But if
you're going to continue playing, there's nothing in video poker programming
that suggests you should do it at a different machine. The deal continues to
be random. A low-paying makeup time --- well, that's just one of those video
poker myths. --------